Author: Basit Mushtaq
PJM TEAC Jan 6, 2026: Topic: RTEP Assumptions, Reliability Outlook, and Supplemental Project Updates
Executive Takeaways: RTEP Assumptions, Reliability Risks, and Transmission Project Updates
The PJM TEAC Jan 2026 meeting underscored three structural trends shaping PJM’s transmission planning outlook:
- State policy and large load assumptions are increasingly driving RTEP modeling inputs.
- Reliability risks are emerging beyond 2030, particularly along key transfer corridors and high-voltage backbones.
- Supplemental transmission projects are increasingly tied to data center growth, asset condition risks, and localized load additions.
Together, these developments highlight the growing complexity of PJM’s planning environment as load growth, electrification, and infrastructure aging converge.
State Policy Assumptions (ISAC)
ISAC presented state public policy inputs for inclusion in the 2026 RTEP assumptions, including:
- Renewable Portfolio Standards and clean energy mandates
- Electrification initiatives
- Offshore wind targets
- Energy storage targets
- Generator siting restrictions and opportunities
- New gas build assumptions
- Integrated Resource Plans (IRPs)
- Large load tariffs
For 2026, PJM incorporated new or revised policies in Illinois, DC, Maryland, New Jersey, Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania, affecting clean energy development, electrification, offshore wind deployment, storage buildout, and generator siting.
2026 RTEP Assumptions and Timeline
Technical Modeling Framework
PJM confirmed that the 2026 RTEP will be developed in accordance with:
- NERC TPL-001-5
- PJM Planning Criteria
- FERC Form 715
Power flow models are based on the 2025 Series MMWG cases.
Load and Generation Assumptions
- Load modeling will use the 2026 PJM Load Forecast across summer, winter, and light-load conditions.
- Generation modeling will include:
- Existing resources
- Resources with signed ISA/GIA
- Cleared BRA resources
- Energy storage resources
- Offshore wind will be incorporated in phases based on project readiness.
RTEP Timeline
- Base case development: Nov 2025 – Mar 2026
- Baseline studies: Mar – Jun 2026
- Competitive proposal window: Jul – Sep 2026
- Proposal evaluation: Sep – Nov 2026
- Review and approval: Oct 2026 – Feb 2027
Reliability Analysis Update
PJM reported that no major regional transfer needs were identified for the 2030 planning horizon. However, by 2032, several areas may require reinforcement depending on load growth and generation development.
Potential Reinforcement Areas
- NW–AEP 765 kV corridor
- Dominion 500 kV backbone (Southern Dominion)
- PPL and MAAC West–East transfer interfaces
Observed Reliability Constraints
- Terminal equipment limitations on the MAAC 500 kV system
- Overloads on PPL 230 kV facilities
- Transfer constraints in ATSI at 138/115 kV and 345 kV
- Voltage and congestion concerns in the Dominion zone
These findings suggest that PJM’s near-term reliability outlook remains stable, but structural constraints may emerge as load and generation portfolios evolve.
Supplemental Transmission Projects
FirstEnergy
APS (FirstEnergy)
Replace limiting conductor at the Yukon Substation (No. 7500 138 kV transformer).
Estimated cost: $0.41M
In-service date: December 31, 2026
JCPL (FirstEnergy)
Manchester Substation is tapped off a 230 kV line without breakers, creating single-contingency exposure affecting approximately 23 MW of load and about 7,000 customers.
Penelec (FirstEnergy)
The Keystone No. 4 500/230 kV transformer (~56 years old) is showing internal deterioration and end-of-life risk.
Exelon
PECO (Exelon)
Replace obsolete 230 kV breakers at Newlinville Substation and replace the 98-year-old Buxmont–Whitpain 230 kV line and associated equipment.
ACE (Exelon)
A new 49 MW load request in Cumberland County, NJ requires transmission upgrades due to insufficient existing infrastructure.
Dominion
Customer-Driven Needs
- Sunset Hill: second transformer (100 MW total load)
- Elm Farm: second transformer (69 MW)
- Barrister: third and fourth transformers for data center load (290 MW)
- Quantico: new 230 kV substation (30.3 MW)
- Correctional Substation: second transformer to avoid overloads and reliance on mobile units
Asset Condition Needs
Replacement of aging weathering steel and concrete structures on multiple 230 kV and 115 kV lines serving approximately 54 MW of load and 50 MW of solar generation.
Hanover Substation
Transformer capacity expansion to address projected overload by Summer 2027.
PJM Planning Process Notes
All supplemental projects are proceeding under PJM’s M-3 process, which includes:
- Assumptions
- Needs identification
- Solutions development
- Do-No-Harm analysis
- Local Plan submission
Stakeholders have 10 days after each meeting stage to submit comments.
ZEG Perspective
The January PJM TEAC discussion illustrates how PJM’s transmission planning is shifting from traditional reliability-driven upgrades toward a hybrid model shaped by state policy, large load growth, and aging infrastructure.
For developers and large load customers, the key challenge is understanding how RTEP assumptions, corridor constraints, and supplemental project triggers translate into real interconnection risk and cost exposure.
ZEG helps stakeholders interpret PJM planning signals through advanced transmission modeling, interconnection analytics, and scenario-based reliability assessment. ZEG enables developers and infrastructure investors to anticipate constraint-driven upgrade requirements, evaluate POI risk, and align project strategy with PJM’s evolving RTEP framework.
If you are evaluating project siting or large load interconnection opportunities in PJM, ZEG can help you quantify transmission risk and navigate PJM’s planning process with technical clarity.
Talk to ZEG about PJM transmission planning and interconnection strategy. Contact us today!
For more on PJM TEAC Jan 2026 meeting, view meeting materials here.
