Author: Basit Mushtaq
The first PJM TEAC meeting of 2026 provided an early and important look at how policy-driven resource assumptions, accelerating load growth, and evolving reliability needs are shaping the 2026 RTEP (Regional Transmission Expansion Plan). As state clean energy mandates expand, offshore wind and storage targets advance, and large-load interconnection requests—particularly from data centers—continue to grow, PJM’s planning assumptions and study timelines are becoming increasingly consequential for project developers and system planners alike.
The meeting focused on state policy inputs informing the 2026 RTEP, the technical and scheduling framework for upcoming planning studies, emerging reliability signals across key interfaces, and a series of supplemental transmission projects addressing near-term asset condition, load service, and operational risk. Together, these updates offer insight into where PJM sees near-term system stress developing, and where project exposure may increase as planning assumptions continue to evolve.
State Policy Assumptions (ISAC)
The Interregional State Agreement Committee (ISAC) presented state public policy inputs for inclusion in the 2026 RTEP assumptions. These inputs covered Renewable Portfolio Standards, clean energy mandates, electrification initiatives, offshore wind targets, energy storage goals, generator siting restrictions and opportunities, new gas build assumptions, Integrated Resource Plans, and large-load tariff considerations.
Updates for the 2026 planning cycle reflected new or revised policies in Illinois, Washington, D.C., Maryland, New Jersey, Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania, with impacts across clean energy deployment, electrification, offshore wind development, storage expansion, and generator siting.
2026 RTEP Assumptions and Timeline
PJM reviewed the technical assumptions supporting the 2026 RTEP. Planning studies will be conducted in accordance with NERC TPL-001-5, PJM Planning Criteria, and Form 715 requirements. Power flow models will be based on the 2025 Series MMWG cases.
Load modeling will use the 2026 PJM Load Forecast across summer, winter, and light-load conditions. Generation assumptions include existing resources, projects with executed ISA or GIA agreements, cleared Base Residual Auction (BRA) resources, and energy storage resources. Offshore wind resources will be incorporated in stages based on project maturity and readiness.
The proposed RTEP schedule includes:
- Base case development: November 2025 – March 2026
- Baseline studies: March – June 2026
- Competitive proposal window: July – September 2026
- Proposal evaluation: September – November 2026
- Review and approval: October 2026 – February 2027
Reliability Analysis Update
PJM reported that no major regional transfer needs were identified for the 2030 planning horizon. However, by 2032, several areas may require reinforcement depending on load growth and resource development outcomes. Potential areas of concern include the NW–AEP 765 kV corridor, the Southern Dominion 500 kV backbone, and the PPL and MAAC West-to-East transfer interfaces.
Observed reliability issues include terminal equipment limitations on the MAAC 500 kV system, overloads on multiple PPL 230 kV facilities, regional transfer constraints in ATSI at the 138/115 kV and 345 kV levels, and voltage and congestion challenges within the Dominion zone.
Supplemental Projects
APS (FirstEnergy): Replacement of a limiting conductor at the Yukon Substation No. 7500 138 kV transformer that is currently causing a transformer derate. The estimated cost is $0.41 million with an in-service date of December 31, 2026.
JCPL (FirstEnergy): The Manchester Substation is tapped off a 230 kV line without breakers, creating vulnerability to single contingencies that could interrupt approximately 23 MW of load and impact roughly 7,000 customers.
Penelec (FirstEnergy): The Keystone No. 4 500/230 kV transformer is approximately 56 years old and exhibiting signs of internal deterioration, including gas generation and oil leakage, indicating elevated end-of-life risk.
PECO (Exelon): Replacement of obsolete 230 kV breakers at the Newlinville Substation and replacement of the 98-year-old Buxmont–Whitpain 230 kV transmission line and associated equipment.
ACE (Exelon): A new 49 MW load request in Cumberland County, New Jersey cannot be reliably served by existing infrastructure and requires transmission system upgrades.
Dominion:
Customer-driven needs include adding a second transformer at Sunset Hill (supporting approximately 100 MW of load), a second transformer at Elm Farm (69 MW), and third and fourth transformers at Barrister to support data center load totaling approximately 290 MW. Additional projects include construction of a new 230 kV Quantico Substation (30.3 MW) and installation of a second transformer at the Correctional Substation to avoid overloads and reliance on mobile units.
Asset condition needs include replacement of aging weathering steel and concrete structures on multiple 230 kV and 115 kV lines serving approximately 54 MW of load and 50 MW of solar generation. A solution was also presented for Hanover Substation to increase transformer capacity and address projected overloads by Summer 2027.
Process Notes
All supplemental projects are advancing under PJM’s M-3 process, which includes Assumptions, Needs, Solutions, Do-No-Harm analysis, and Local Plan submission. Stakeholders have a 10-day comment window following each meeting stage to provide feedback.
Transmission planning assumptions, load growth forecasts, and supplemental project development are increasingly interconnected—and misalignment can materially impact project risk, cost exposure, and timelines.
Zero Emission Grid (ZEG) helps developers, utilities, and investors navigate PJM planning outcomes with detailed RTEP analysis, interconnection risk assessments, and forward-looking reliability insights.
If you need support interpreting PJM planning signals or evaluating project exposure, contact ZEG to discuss how we can support your planning and development strategy.
Resources & References
PJM RTEP Planning Documentation
PJM RPM Manuals & Deliverability Rules
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PJM’s Interim Deliverability Study (IDS): What Developers Need to Know
